MeritValue

NewLake Capital Partners, Inc.

NLCPdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. earns about 5% on equity, but has diluted owners by 19% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $12.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.4M1$42.2M2$46.3M3$48.9M4$49.5M4
Net income$11.6M5$22M6$24.6M7$26.1M8$26.3M8
Operating cash flow$26.7M9$37M10$40.1M11$43.3M12$42.5M12
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$127.1M13$45.2M14$25.8M15$20.2M16$23.9M16
Diluted shares17.6M21.8M21.5M21.0M21.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$184.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.54
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $184.81 of net worth that earned you $12.54 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
5% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 5%FY23 6%FY24 7%FY25 7%

It earned an average 5% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+19% shares · 5y

Share count is up 19% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$12.14
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$24.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.07
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001854964-23-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001854964-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001854964-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001854964-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001854964-23-000007 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001854964-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001854964-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001854964-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001854964-23-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001854964-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001854964-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001854964-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001854964-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001854964-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001854964-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001854964-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)