MeritValue

NL INDUSTRIES INC

NLdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NL INDUSTRIES INC earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.18 and $18.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$140.8M1$166.6M2$161.3M3$145.9M3$158.3M3
Net income$51.2M4$33.8M5−$2.31M6$67.2M6−$37.8M6
Operating cash flow$17.6M7$26.9M8$37M9$25.6M9−$36.4M9
Capital expenditure$4.09M10$3.7M11$1.13M12$1.43M12$3.75M12
Free cash flow (derived)$13.5M7$23.2M8$35.9M9$24.1M9−$40.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$147M13$68.9M14$111.5M15$163.2M16$110.6M16
Diluted shares48.8M48.8M48.8M48.8M48.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$73.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.74
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.22
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $73.43 of net worth that earned you −$7.74 and generated −$8.22 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 12%FY23 -2%FY24 30%FY25 -16%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.18 and $18.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$18.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.8%
  • fcfBase$24.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.8%
  • fcfBase$24.1M
Earnings Power Value
$7.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$33.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.32
Base11.8%$13.9
Bull16.8%$16.48

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002620 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002417 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025290 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002620 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002417 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025290 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002620 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002417 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025290 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002620 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002417 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025290 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003155 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002620 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002417 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025290 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)