MeritValue

NATIONAL BANKSHARES INC

NKSHdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

NATIONAL BANKSHARES INC earns about 47% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $25.78 and $40.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.65M1$6.99M2$7.07M3$7.45M4$8.18M4
Net income$20.4M5$25.9M6$15.7M7$7.62M8$15.8M8
Operating cash flow$22.9M9$29.5M10$15.5M11$9.44M12$17.9M12
Capital expenditure$323,00013$1.26M14$1.49M14$3.26M15$2.74M15
Free cash flow (derived)$22.6M9$28.2M10$14M11$6.18M12$15.2M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents——$86.6M16$108.1M17$59.3M17
Diluted shares6.2M6.0M5.9M6.2M6.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$290.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.87
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.81
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $290.62 of net worth that earned you $24.87 and generated $23.81 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
47% avg · 5y
FY21 29%FY22 23%FY23 63%FY24 79%FY25 43%

It earned about 47% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $25.78 and $40.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$38.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$14M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$40.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$14M
Earnings Power Value
$25.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$15.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$40.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $40.82
The three cases
Bear0.0%$40.82
Base0.0%$40.82
Bull5.0%$48.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006097 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008428 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046763 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128311 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006097 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008428 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046763 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128311 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006097 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008428 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046763 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128311 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006097 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008428 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128311 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046763 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-128311 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)