NIKE, Inc.
NKEdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
NIKE, Inc. earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.54 and $35.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $46.7B1 | $51.2B2 | $51.4B3 | $46.3B3 | $46.4B3 |
| Net income | $6.05B4 | $5.07B5 | $5.7B6 | $3.22B6 | $3.11B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $5.19B7 | $5.84B8 | $7.43B9 | $3.7B9 | $2.87B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $758M10 | $969M11 | $812M12 | $430M12 | $684M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $4.43B7 | $4.87B8 | $6.62B9 | $3.27B9 | $2.18B9 |
| Total debt | $18.9B13 | $17.9B14 | $17.8B15 | $15.9B16 | $15.9B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $8.57B17 | $7.44B18 | $9.86B19 | $7.46B20 | $7.56B20 |
| Diluted shares | 1.61B | 1.57B | 1.53B | 1.49B | 1.48B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $100.37 of net worth that earned you $20.99 and generated $14.75 of cash last year, against $107.25 of debt.
It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 16% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.54 and $35.48 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$3.27B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$3.27B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$5.07B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $25.91 |
| Base | 0.0% | $25.91 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $33.54 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000320187-24-000044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000320187-25-000047 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0000320187-26-000088 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000320187-24-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000320187-25-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0000320187-26-000088 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000320187-24-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000320187-25-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0000320187-26-000088 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000320187-24-000044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000320187-25-000047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0000320187-26-000088 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000320187-23-000039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000320187-24-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0000320187-25-000047 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-05-31 · accession 0000320187-26-000088 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000320187-23-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000320187-24-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0000320187-25-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-05-31 · accession 0000320187-26-000088 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)