MeritValue

NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORP

NJRdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORP earns about 14% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $28.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$852.1M1$1.2B2$1.11B3$1.23B3$1.35B3
Net income$117.9M4$274.9M5$264.7M6$289.8M6$335.6M6
Operating cash flow$391M7$323.5M8$479M9$427.4M9$466.3M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$377.3M10$424M11$252.1M12$291.8M13$195.6M13
Cash & equivalents$4.75M14$1.11M15$954,00016$1.02M16$591,00016
Diluted shares96.6M96.5M97.6M99.3M100.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$237.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.3
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$19.41

10 shares is a claim on $237.3 of net worth that earned you $33.3 last year, against $19.41 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 15%FY23 16%FY24 11%FY25 13%

It earned an average 14% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 48% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$28.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$274.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$42.17
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000356309-23-000083 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000356309-24-000083 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000356309-25-000093 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000356309-23-000083 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000356309-24-000083 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000356309-25-000093 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000356309-23-000083 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000356309-24-000083 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000356309-25-000093 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000356309-22-000098 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000356309-23-000083 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000356309-24-000083 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000356309-25-000093 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000356309-23-000083 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000356309-24-000083 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000356309-25-000093 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)