MeritValue

NewGenIvf Group Ltd

NIVFdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

NewGenIvf Group Ltd earns about 22% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 480% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.12M1$506,3432$446,0042$371,6663$23.7M3
Net income−$5334$458,6675$130,1936−$524,6436$9.88M6
Operating cash flow$1.43M7$1.71M8−$1.77M9−$8.26M9−$10.9M9
Capital expenditure$16,57510$94,45211$69,84812$53,04512$135,02512
Free cash flow (derived)$1.42M7$1.62M8−$1.84M9−$8.32M9−$11.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$28,76413$27,55614$54,10415$457,74016$758,62116
Diluted shares560,00028,797101193.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$81.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.4
Free cash flow it threw off
−$34.03
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $81.94 of net worth that earned you $30.4 and generated −$34.03 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 32%FY23 3%FY24 —FY25 32%

It earned an average 22% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+480% shares · 5y

Share count is up 480% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.42
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$130,193
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.67
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-070853 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043940 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037687 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-070853 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043940 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037687 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-070853 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043940 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037687 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-070853 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043940 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037687 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043940 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-070853 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043940 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037687 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)