MeritValue

Niu Technologies

NIUdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Niu Technologies earns about -35% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.06 and $1.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$581.3M1$459.4M2$373.5M3$450.5M4$616M5
Net income$35.4M6−$7.17M7−$38.3M8−$26.5M9−$5.63M10
Operating cash flow$52.4M11−$17.7M12$13.2M13$7.16M14$50.5M15
Capital expenditure——$11.1M16$16.4M17$25.4M18
Free cash flow (derived)——$2.08M13−$9.24M14$25.1M15
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$32.7M19$77.5M20$122.9M21$86.3M22$132.2M23
Diluted shares160.5M155.2M156.8M158.5M159.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.35
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.57
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $8.1 of net worth that earned you −$0.35 and generated $1.57 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-35% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 -7%FY23 -100%FY24 -57%FY25 —

It earned about -35% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.06 and $1.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.08M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.08M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.06
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.01
Base5.0%$1.06
Bull10.0%$1.11

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-051148 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-088518 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050776 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000798 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-044568 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-051148 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-088518 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050776 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000798 (NetIncomeLoss)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-044568 (NetIncomeLoss)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-051148 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-088518 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050776 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000798 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-044568 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050776 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000798 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-044568 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-051148 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-088518 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050776 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000798 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-044568 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)