MeritValue

NIQ Global Intelligence plc

NIQdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

NIQ Global Intelligence plc earns about -21% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.34B1$3.97B1$4.2B1
Net income−$577.4M2−$798M2−$353.3M2
Operating cash flow−$11.8M3$73.9M3$298.7M3
Capital expenditure$24.2M4$35.4M4$34.7M4
Free cash flow (derived)−$36M3$38.5M3$264M3
Total debt—$4.08B5$3.61B5
Cash & equivalents$283M6$266.2M6$518.8M6
Diluted shares245.0M245.0M266.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$37.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13.24
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.89
Debt you’d be carrying
$135.25

10 shares is a claim on $37.03 of net worth that earned you −$13.24 and generated $9.89 of cash last year, against $135.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-21% avg · 3y
FY23 -43%FY24 -14%FY25 -4%

It earned an average -21% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 3y

Share count is up 9% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 12% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$38.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$38.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012572 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012572 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012572 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012572 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012572 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012572 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)