MeritValue

NIO Inc.

NIOdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NIO Inc. earns about -112% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 45% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.67B1$7.14B2$7.83B3$9.01B4$12.5B5
Net income−$630.3M6−$2.09B7−$2.92B8−$3.07B9−$2.14B10
Operating cash flow$308.6M11−$560.5M12−$194.6M13−$1.08B14$427.9M15
Capital expenditure$640M16$1.01B17$2.02B18$1.25B19$867.3M20
Free cash flow (derived)−$331.5M11−$1.57B12−$2.21B13−$2.33B14−$439.4M15
Total debt$2.67B21$2.34B22$3.22B23$2.82B24$2B25
Cash & equivalents$2.41B26$2.88B27$4.64B28$2.65B29$1.61B30
Diluted shares1.57B1.64B1.70B2.05B2.27B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.4
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$8.79

10 shares is a claim on $2.62 of net worth that earned you −$9.4 and generated −$1.93 of cash last year, against $8.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-112% avg · 5y
FY21 -7%FY22 -55%FY23 -102%FY24 -237%FY25 -160%

It earned an average -112% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+45% shares · 5y

Share count is up 45% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 25% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052718 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051990 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-044923 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000661 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041765 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052718 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051990 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-044923 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000661 (ProfitLoss)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041765 (ProfitLoss)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052718 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051990 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-044923 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000661 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041765 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052718 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051990 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-044923 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000661 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041765 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  21. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052718 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  22. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051990 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  23. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-044923 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  24. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000661 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  25. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041765 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  26. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052718 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  27. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-051990 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  28. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-044923 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  29. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000661 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  30. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-041765 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)