MeritValue

Nine Energy Service, Inc.

NINEdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Nine Energy Service, Inc. earns about -8% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 35% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$349.4M1$593.4M2$609.5M3$554.1M4$561.9M4
Net income−$64.6M5$14.4M6−$32.2M7−$41.1M8−$51.3M8
Operating cash flow−$40.4M9$16.7M10$45.5M11$13.2M12−$7.31M12
Capital expenditure$15.4M13$28.6M14$24.6M15$14.8M16$15.9M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$55.8M9−$11.9M10$20.9M11−$1.57M12−$23.3M12
Total debt$334.4M17$340.3M18$323.4M19$320.8M20$347.9M20
Cash & equivalents$21.5M21$17.4M22$30.8M23$27.9M24$18.4M24
Diluted shares30.3M32.3M33.3M37.2M40.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$28.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.54
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.68
Debt you’d be carrying
$85.02

10 shares is a claim on −$28.09 of net worth that earned you −$12.54 and generated −$5.68 of cash last year, against $85.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-8% avg · 5y
FY21 -28%FY22 15%FY23 6%FY24 -14%FY25 -19%

It earned an average -8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+35% shares · 5y

Share count is up 35% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001532286-23-000005 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001532286-24-000004 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001532286-25-000008 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001532286-26-000005 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001532286-23-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001532286-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001532286-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001532286-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001532286-23-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001532286-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001532286-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001532286-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001532286-23-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001532286-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001532286-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001532286-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001532286-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001532286-24-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001532286-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001532286-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001532286-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001532286-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001532286-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001532286-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)