MeritValue

NICE Ltd.

NICEdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NICE Ltd. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $55.07 and $490.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.92B1$2.18B2$2.38B3$2.74B3$2.95B3
Net income$199.6M4$265.1M5$336.5M6$439.5M6$612.1M6
Operating cash flow$461.8M7$479.7M8$561.4M9$832.6M9$716.5M9
Capital expenditure$24.8M10$31.9M11$29.2M12$35M12$18.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$437M7$447.8M8$532.2M9$797.7M9$697.6M9
Total debt$825.2M13$664.7M14$666.3M15$458.8M15$016
Cash & equivalents$378.7M17$529.6M18$511.8M19$481.7M19$379.4M19
Diluted shares66.9M66.5M66.3M65.5M63.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$612.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$96.66
Free cash flow it threw off
$110.17
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $612.18 of net worth that earned you $96.66 and generated $110.17 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 8%FY23 10%FY24 12%FY25 18%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $55.07 and $490.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$490.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.9%
  • fcfBase$697.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$312.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.9%
  • fcfBase$697.6M
Earnings Power Value
$55.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$336.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$115.41
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $312.3
The three cases
Bear0.0%$163.4
Base15.9%$312.3
Bull20.0%$365.18

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013301 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001003935-25-000004 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001003935-26-000010 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013301 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001003935-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001003935-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013301 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001003935-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001003935-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013301 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001003935-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001003935-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001003935-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013301 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001003935-25-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001003935-26-000010 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013301 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001003935-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001003935-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)