MeritValue

NICOLET BANKSHARES INC

NICdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NICOLET BANKSHARES INC earns about 28% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 38% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $63.41 and $268.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$171.6M1$273.9M2$382.9M3$438.4M3$471M3
Net income$60.7M4$94.3M5$61.5M6$124.1M6$150.7M6
Operating cash flow$97.7M7$117.4M8$108M9$133.7M9$153.5M9
Capital expenditure$12.8M10$12.2M11$18.6M12$16.9M12$4.09M12
Free cash flow (derived)$84.9M7$105.2M8$89.4M9$116.8M9$149.4M9
Total debt$216.9M13$542.3M14$166.9M15$161.4M16$134.9M16
Cash & equivalents$595.3M17$154.7M18$491.4M18$536M18$660.2M18
Diluted shares11.1M14.4M15.1M15.4M15.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$816.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$97.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$97.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$87.55

10 shares is a claim on $816.46 of net worth that earned you $97.82 and generated $97.02 of cash last year, against $87.55 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
28% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 9%FY23 23%FY24 42%FY25 54%

It earned about 28% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+38% shares · 5y

Share count is up 38% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 38% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $63.41 and $268.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$268.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.2%
  • fcfBase$116.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$208.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.2%
  • fcfBase$116.8M
Earnings Power Value
$63.41
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$94.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$134.04
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $208.78
The three cases
Bear0.0%$142.47
Base11.2%$208.78
Bull16.2%$247.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174850-24-000010 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174850-25-000008 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174850-26-000077 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174850-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174850-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174850-26-000077 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174850-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174850-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174850-26-000077 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174850-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174850-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174850-26-000077 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174850-23-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174850-24-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174850-25-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001174850-26-000077 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174850-25-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174850-26-000077 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)