MeritValue

NISOURCE INC.

NIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

NISOURCE INC. earns about 9% on equity, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $16.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.73B1$5.74B2$5.35B3$5.28B3$6.52B3
Net income$584.9M4$804.1M5$714.3M6$760.4M6$929.5M6
Operating cash flow$1.22B7$1.41B8$1.94B9$1.78B9$2.36B9
Capital expenditure$1.84B10$2.2B11$2.65B12$2.61B12$2.78B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$620.1M7−$793.7M8−$710.7M9−$832.5M9−$420M9
Total debt$1.12B13$2.18B14$4.13B15$2.49B16$1.49B16
Cash & equivalents$84.2M17$40.8M18$2.25B19$156.6M19$110.1M19
Diluted shares417.3M442.7M447.9M456.0M474.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$199.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.59
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.85
Debt you’d be carrying
$31.44

10 shares is a claim on $199.16 of net worth that earned you $19.59 and generated −$8.85 of cash last year, against $31.44 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
9% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 11%FY23 9%FY24 9%FY25 10%

It earned an average 9% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 33% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$16.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$760.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$29.56
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001111711-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001111711-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001111711-26-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001111711-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001111711-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001111711-26-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001111711-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001111711-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001111711-26-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001111711-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001111711-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001111711-26-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001111711-23-000006 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001111711-24-000011 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001111711-25-000008 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001111711-26-000027 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001111711-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001111711-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001111711-26-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)