MeritValue

NATURAL HEALTH TRENDS CORP

NHTCdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

NATURAL HEALTH TRENDS CORP earns about 0% on equity, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$60M1$49.1M2$43.9M3$43M4$39.8M4
Net income$1.09M5$313,0006$568,0007$572,0008−$882,0008
Operating cash flow$1.02M9−$4.85M10−$4.28M11−$3.37M12−$6M12
Capital expenditure$225,00013$143,00014$46,00015$57,00016$68,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$791,0009−$5M10−$4.32M11−$3.42M12−$6.07M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$83.8M17$69.7M18$56.2M19$13.5M20$6.81M20
Diluted shares11.4M11.4M11.5M11.5M11.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$20.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.77
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.28
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $20.38 of net worth that earned you −$0.77 and generated −$5.28 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
0% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 1%FY23 1%FY24 2%FY25 -4%

It earned an average 0% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$568,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005365 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005850 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004700 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004876 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005365 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005850 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004700 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004876 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005365 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005850 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004700 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004876 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005365 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005850 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004700 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004876 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005365 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005850 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004700 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004876 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)