MeritValue

National Healthcare Properties, Inc.

NHPdata completeness 75%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

National Healthcare Properties, Inc. earns about -6% on invested capital, and has bought back 75% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$329.4M1$335.8M2$345.9M3$353.8M3$342.3M3
Net income−$85.4M4−$79.6M5−$72.4M6−$190.3M6−$57.7M6
Operating cash flow$38.9M7$28.3M8$21.6M9−$79.8M9$6.95M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$59.7M10$53.7M11$46.4M12$21.7M12$57.6M12
Diluted shares113.0M28.3M28.3M28.3M28.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$212.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$20.38
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $212.01 of net worth that earned you −$20.38 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 -2%FY23 -1%FY24 -14%FY25 -8%

It earned an average -6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−75% shares · 5y

Share count is down 75% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001561032-24-000007 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001561032-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001561032-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001561032-24-000007 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001561032-25-000006 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001561032-26-000009 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001561032-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001561032-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001561032-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001561032-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001561032-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001561032-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)