NATIONAL HEALTH INVESTORS INC
NHIdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on fileNATIONAL HEALTH INVESTORS INC earns about 9% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.41 and $29.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $01 | $35.8M2 | $48.8M3 | $54.4M3 | $80.1M3 |
| Net income | $111.8M4 | $66.4M5 | $135.7M6 | $138M6 | $142.2M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $210.9M7 | $185.3M8 | $184.5M9 | $207.8M9 | $236.6M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $50.3M10 | $11M11 | $49.6M12 | $157.9M12 | $294M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $160.5M7 | $174.3M8 | $134.9M9 | $49.8M9 | −$57.5M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $37.4M13 | $19.3M14 | $22.3M15 | $24.3M15 | $19.6M15 |
| Diluted shares | 45.7M | 44.8M | 43.4M | 44.1M | 47.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $323.38 of net worth that earned you $30.22 and generated −$12.21 of cash last year.
It earned about 9% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.41 and $29.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$49.8M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$49.8M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$135.7M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $15.55 |
| Base | 0.0% | $15.55 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $19.21 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000877860-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000877860-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000877860-26-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000877860-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000877860-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000877860-26-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000877860-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000877860-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000877860-26-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000877860-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000877860-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000877860-26-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000877860-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000877860-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000877860-26-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)