MeritValue

NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORP

NHCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORP earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $67.51 and $318.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$965.5M1$1.03B2$1.09B3$1.25B3$1.47B3
Net income$138.6M4$22.4M5$66.8M6$101.9M6$120M6
Operating cash flow$62.4M7$8.74M8$111.2M9$107.3M9$185.1M9
Capital expenditure$39.4M10$30.2M11$27.9M12$27.6M12$36.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$23M7−$21.5M8$83.3M9$79.7M9$148.6M9
Total debt——$013$274M14$80M14
Cash & equivalents$107.6M15$58.7M16$107.1M17$76.1M17$92.8M17
Diluted shares15.4M15.4M15.4M15.6M15.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$683.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$76.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$94.99
Debt you’d be carrying
$51.13

10 shares is a claim on $683.08 of net worth that earned you $76.7 and generated $94.99 of cash last year, against $51.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 2%FY23 8%FY24 9%FY25 12%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $67.51 and $318.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$318.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$83.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$174.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$83.3M
Earnings Power Value
$67.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$101.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$108.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $174.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$76.9
Base20.0%$174.43
Bull20.0%$174.43

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004619 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005928 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005910 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004619 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005928 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005910 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004619 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005928 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005910 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004619 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005928 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005910 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005928 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005910 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004619 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005928 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005910 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)