MeritValue

Ingevity Corp

NGVTdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ingevity Corp earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.62 and $38.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.39B1$1.67B2$1.22B3$1.2B3$1.17B3
Net income$118.1M4$211.6M5−$5.4M6−$430.3M6−$167.1M6
Operating cash flow$293.3M7$313.4M8$205.1M9$128.6M9$331.2M9
Capital expenditure$103.8M10$142.5M11$109.8M12$77.6M12$57.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$189.5M7$170.9M8$95.3M9$51M9$273.5M9
Total debt$19.6M13$900,00014$84.4M15$61.3M16$47.1M16
Cash & equivalents$275.4M17$76.7M18$95.9M19$68M19$78.1M19
Diluted shares40.1M38.5M36.7M36.3M36.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$46.13
Free cash flow it threw off
$75.51
Debt you’d be carrying
$13

10 shares is a claim on $8.2 of net worth that earned you −$46.13 and generated $75.51 of cash last year, against $13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 37%FY22 42%FY23 29%FY24 -18%FY25 —

It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 140% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.62 and $38.45 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$35.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$95.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$38.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$95.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $38.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$38.45
Base0.0%$38.45
Bull5.0%$47.55

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653477-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653477-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653477-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653477-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653477-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653477-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653477-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653477-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653477-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653477-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653477-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653477-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653477-23-000010 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653477-24-000009 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653477-25-000015 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001653477-26-000014 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653477-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653477-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653477-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)