MeritValue

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.

NGVCdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.36 and $18.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.06B1$1.09B2$1.14B3$1.24B3$1.33B3
Net income$20.6M4$21.4M5$23.2M6$33.9M6$46.4M6
Operating cash flow$53.9M7$39.7M8$64.6M9$73.8M9$55.3M9
Capital expenditure$26.4M10$28M11$36.6M12$37.5M12$31.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$27.5M7$11.7M8$28M9$36.2M9$24.1M9
Total debt$23.7M13$15.7M14$7.69M15$015—
Cash & equivalents$23.7M16$12M17$18.3M18$8.87M19$17.1M19
Diluted shares22.7M22.8M22.8M23.1M23.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$91.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.36
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $91.33 of net worth that earned you $19.97 and generated $10.36 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 15%FY23 16%FY24 23%FY25 25%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.36 and $18.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.6%
  • fcfBase$28M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.6%
  • fcfBase$28M
Earnings Power Value
$10.36
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$23.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.96
Base0.6%$18.43
Bull5.6%$22.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-033880 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-037351 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-037556 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-033880 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-037351 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-037556 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-033880 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-037351 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-037556 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-033880 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-037351 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-037556 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001437749-22-028744 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-033880 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-037351 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001437749-22-028744 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001437749-23-033880 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001437749-24-037351 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001437749-25-037556 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)