MeritValue

NATURAL GAS SERVICES GROUP INC

NGSdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NATURAL GAS SERVICES GROUP INC earns about 3% on invested capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.8M1$10.4M2$15M2$156.7M3$172.3M3
Net income−$9.18M4−$569,0005$4.75M6$17.2M6$19.9M6
Operating cash flow$28.5M7$27.8M8$18M9$66.5M9$62.9M9
Capital expenditure$25.7M10$65.1M11$153.9M12$71.9M12$121.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.82M7−$37.4M8−$135.9M9−$5.43M9−$58.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$22.9M13$3.37M14$2.75M15$2.14M16$016
Diluted shares13.1M12.3M12.4M12.6M12.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$216.4
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.7
Free cash flow it threw off
−$46.13
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $216.4 of net worth that earned you $15.7 and generated −$46.13 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 0%FY23 3%FY24 7%FY25 7%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$3.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.75M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001084991-23-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001084991-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001084991-26-000015 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001084991-23-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001084991-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001084991-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001084991-23-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001084991-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001084991-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001084991-23-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001084991-25-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001084991-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001084991-23-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001084991-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001084991-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001084991-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)