MeritValue

NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO

NFGdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.91 and $62.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.74B1$3.06B2$2.25B3$1.71B3$2.22B3
Net income$363.6M4$566M5$476.9M6$77.5M6$518.5M6
Operating cash flow$791.6M7$812.5M8$1.24B9$1.07B9$1.1B9
Capital expenditure$751.7M10$811.8M11$1.01B12$931.2M12$912.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$39.8M7$695,0008$227.2M9$134.7M9$187.2M9
Total debt$5.42B13$5.32B14$5.06B15$5.47B16$5.52B16
Cash & equivalents$31.5M17$46M18$55.4M18$38.2M18$43.2M18
Diluted shares91.7M92.1M92.3M92.3M91.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$339.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$56.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$20.52
Debt you’d be carrying
$604.63

10 shares is a claim on $339.22 of net worth that earned you $56.84 and generated $20.52 of cash last year, against $604.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 14%FY23 12%FY24 4%FY25 7%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.91 and $62.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$62.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$187.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$187.2M
Earnings Power Value
$54.17
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$476.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$65.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.91
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$30.67
Base20.0%$6.91
Bull20.0%$6.91

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000070145-23-000040 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000070145-24-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000070145-25-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000070145-23-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000070145-24-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000070145-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000070145-23-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000070145-24-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000070145-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000070145-23-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000070145-24-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000070145-25-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000070145-22-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000070145-23-000040 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000070145-24-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000070145-25-000039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000070145-24-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000070145-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)