MeritValue

New Fortress Energy Inc.

NFEdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

New Fortress Energy Inc. earns about 0% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 38% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$930.8M1$1.98B2$2.06B3$1.7B3$1.18B3
Net income$97.1M4$194.5M4$547.9M4−$244.5M5−$1.83B5
Operating cash flow$84.8M6$355.1M7$818.6M8$602.2M8−$583.4M8
Capital expenditure$669.3M9$1.17B10$2.92B11$2.13B11$650.8M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$584.6M6−$818.9M7−$2.1B8−$1.53B8−$1.23B8
Total debt$7.71B12$9.15B13$14.1B14$18.5B14$16.4B14
Cash & equivalents$187.5M15$675.5M16$155.4M17$492.9M17$226.5M17
Diluted shares201.7M209.9M206.5M218.6M278.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$65.79
Free cash flow it threw off
−$44.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$590.04

10 shares is a claim on $6.56 of net worth that earned you −$65.79 and generated −$44.32 of cash last year, against $590.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 3%FY23 5%FY24 -1%FY25 -9%

It earned an average 0% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+38% shares · 5y

Share count is up 38% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 113% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$3.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$97.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001749723-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001749723-25-000098 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001749723-26-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001749723-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001749723-26-000032 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001749723-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001749723-25-000098 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001749723-26-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001749723-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001749723-25-000098 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001749723-26-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001749723-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001749723-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001749723-26-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001749723-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001749723-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001749723-26-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)