MeritValue

Northfield Bancorp, Inc.

NFBKdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Northfield Bancorp, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.72 and $19.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.39M1$5.71M2$5.48M3$6.43M3$6.87M3
Net income$70.7M4$61.1M5$37.7M6$29.9M6$796,0006
Operating cash flow$64.8M7$83.3M8$47M9$31.1M9$53.7M9
Capital expenditure$1.64M10$2.55M10$3.61M11$1.15M11$1.15M11
Free cash flow (derived)$63.1M7$80.8M8$43.4M9$30M9$52.5M9
Total debt$421.8M12$583.9M13$859.3M14$666.4M14—
Cash & equivalents$91.1M15$45.8M16$229.5M17$167.7M18$164M18
Diluted shares48.8M46.4M43.6M41.6M40.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$171.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.08
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $171.77 of net worth that earned you $0.2 and generated $13.08 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 6%FY23 7%FY24 10%FY25 15%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 58% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.72 and $19.5 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$18.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$43.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$19.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$43.4M
Earnings Power Value
$9.72
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$37.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.78
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $19.5
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.5
Base0.0%$19.5
Bull5.0%$23.24

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493225-24-000059 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493225-25-000047 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493225-26-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493225-24-000059 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493225-25-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493225-26-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493225-24-000059 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493225-25-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493225-26-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493225-23-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493225-26-000037 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493225-23-000055 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493225-24-000059 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493225-25-000047 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493225-23-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493225-24-000059 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493225-25-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493225-26-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)