MeritValue

NextDecade Corp

NEXTdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

NextDecade Corp earns about -135% on equity, but has diluted owners by 120% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$02$03$03$03
Net income−$22M4−$60.1M4−$221.6M5$277.4M5−$429.6M5
Operating cash flow−$18M6−$40.1M7−$73.6M8−$95.6M8−$169.4M8
Capital expenditure$12.1M9$33.8M10$1.74B11$2.57B11$4.85B11
Free cash flow (derived)−$30.1M6−$73.8M7−$1.81B8−$2.66B8−$5.02B8
Total debt—$012$3.63B13$7.96B14$17.3B14
Cash & equivalents$25.6M15$62.8M16$38.2M17$148.1M18$143.8M18
Diluted shares119.2M130.1M194.6M258.5M262.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.39
Free cash flow it threw off
−$191.34
Debt you’d be carrying
$661.35

10 shares is a claim on $3.64 of net worth that earned you −$16.39 and generated −$191.34 of cash last year, against $661.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-135% avg · 5y
FY21 -111%FY22 -110%FY23 -77%FY24 73%FY25 -451%

It earned an average -135% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+120% shares · 5y

Share count is up 120% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006171 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010236 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001612720-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006171 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001612720-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006171 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010236 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001612720-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006171 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010236 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001612720-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010236 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008841 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001612720-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006171 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010236 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008841 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001612720-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)