Nexxen International Ltd.

NEXNdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Nexxen International Ltd. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 64% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.61 and $46.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$341.9M1$335.3M2$332M3$365.5M3$364.8M3
Net income$73.2M4$22.7M5−$21.5M6$35.4M6$25M6
Operating cash flow$170.1M7$83M8$60.7M9$150.8M9$110.1M9
Capital expenditure$3.38M10$6.43M11$4.5M12$7.74M12$12.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$166.7M7$76.6M8$56.2M9$143.1M9$98M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$367.7M13$217.5M14$234.3M14$187.1M14$133.3M14
Diluted shares154.5M144.5M146.2M65.6M56.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$84.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.41
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $84.33 of net worth that earned you $4.45 and generated $17.41 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 35%FY22 7%FY23 -5%FY24 10%FY25 7%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−64% shares · 5y

Share count is down 64% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.61 and $46.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$46.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.6%
  • fcfBase$98M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$38.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.6%
  • fcfBase$98M
Earnings Power Value
$4.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$25M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $38.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$27.24
Base8.6%$38.27
Bull13.6%$46.43

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000839 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000697 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000712 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000839 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000697 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000712 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000839 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000697 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000712 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000839 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000697 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000712 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000697 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000712 (CashAndCashEquivalents)