MeritValue

Nexa Resources S.A.

NEXAdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Nexa Resources S.A. earns about 7% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.62B1$3.03B2$2.57B3$2.77B3$3B3
Net income$114.3M4$49.7M5−$292M6−$205M6$132.6M6
Operating cash flow$493M7$269M8$256.2M9$351.4M9$365M9
Capital expenditure$485.2M10$382.5M11$310.2M12$259M12$351.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$7.78M7−$113.5M8−$54M9$92.4M9$13.1M9
Total debt$1.7B13$1.67B14$1.73B15$1.76B15$1.71B15
Cash & equivalents$743.8M16$497.8M17$457.3M18$620.5M19$515.9M19
Diluted shares132.4M132.4M132.4M132.4M132.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$75.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.99
Debt you’d be carrying
$128.81

10 shares is a claim on $75.73 of net worth that earned you $10.01 and generated $0.99 of cash last year, against $128.81 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 13%FY23 -9%FY24 -3%FY25 15%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$13.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$13.1M
Earnings Power Value
$3.89
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$49.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001026 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001097 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001292814-26-001787 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001026 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001097 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001292814-26-001787 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001026 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001097 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001292814-26-001787 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001026 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001097 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001292814-26-001787 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001026 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001097 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001292814-26-001787 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-004334 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001026 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001097 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001292814-26-001787 (CashAndCashEquivalents)