MeritValue

NewtekOne, Inc.

NEWTdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

NewtekOne, Inc. earns about 16% on equity, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $19.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$84.1M1$32.3M2$47.3M3$50.9M3$60.5M3
Operating cash flow$140.9M4−$62.4M5−$169.2M6−$153M6−$579.2M6
Capital expenditure$07$11,0008$458,0009$439,0009$106,0009
Free cash flow (derived)$140.9M4−$62.4M5−$169.7M6−$153.5M6−$579.3M6
Total debt—$539.3M10$644.1M11$708M12$819.9M12
Cash & equivalents$186.9M13$125.6M14$184M14$381.4M14$310.3M14
Diluted shares22.8M24.2M24.3M25.2M26.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$148.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.65
Free cash flow it threw off
−$216.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$306.9

10 shares is a claim on $148.82 of net worth that earned you $22.65 and generated −$216.86 of cash last year, against $306.9 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
16% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 9%FY23 19%FY24 17%FY25 15%

It earned an average 16% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 52% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$19.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$50.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001587987-24-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001587987-25-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016503 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001587987-24-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001587987-25-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016503 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001587987-24-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001587987-25-000050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016503 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001587987-24-000054 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001587987-25-000050 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016503 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001587987-25-000050 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016503 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)