MeritValue

NEWMARKET CORP

NEUdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NEWMARKET CORP earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $429.33 and $2,942.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.36B1$2.76B2$2.7B3$2.79B3$2.73B3
Net income$190.9M4$279.5M5$388.9M6$462.4M6$418.7M6
Operating cash flow$165.3M7$108.6M8$576.8M9$519.6M9$569M9
Capital expenditure$78.9M10$56.2M11$48.3M12$57.3M12$77.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$86.4M7$52.5M8$528.5M9$462.3M9$491.3M9
Total debt$2.28B13$2.01B14$1.29B15$1.94B16$1.77B16
Cash & equivalents$83.3M17$68.7M18$111.9M19$77.5M20$77.6M20
Diluted shares10.8M10.0M9.6M9.6M9.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,894.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$446.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$523.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,882.36

10 shares is a claim on $1,894.57 of net worth that earned you $446.14 and generated $523.47 of cash last year, against $1,882.36 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 11%FY23 19%FY24 15%FY25 13%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 22% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $429.33 and $2,942.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2,942.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$491.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1,526.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$491.3M
Earnings Power Value
$429.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$388.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$435.24
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1,526.74
The three cases
Bear0.0%$567.95
Base20.0%$1,526.74
Bull20.0%$1,526.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001282637-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001282637-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001282637-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001282637-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001282637-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001282637-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001282637-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001282637-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001282637-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001282637-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001282637-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001282637-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001282637-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001282637-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001282637-25-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001282637-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001282637-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001282637-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001282637-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001282637-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)