National Energy Services Reunited Corp.

NESRdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

National Energy Services Reunited Corp. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.32 and $68.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$876.7M1$909.5M2$1.15B3$1.3B3$1.32B3
Net income−$64.6M4−$36.4M5$12.6M6$76.3M6$51.1M6
Operating cash flow$127.7M7$92.6M8$177M9$229.3M9$264.2M9
Capital expenditure$107.1M10$122.4M11$68.2M12$105.1M12$143.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$20.7M7−$29.8M8$108.8M9$124.2M9$120.8M9
Total debt$595.8M13$987M14$860.7M15$709.6M16$568.1M16
Cash & equivalents$205.8M17$78.9M18$67.8M19$108M19$124.8M19
Diluted shares91.0M93.0M94.7M95.7M99.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$97.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$57.33

10 shares is a claim on $97.67 of net worth that earned you $5.16 and generated $12.19 of cash last year, against $57.33 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 0%FY23 2%FY24 7%FY25 6%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.32 and $68.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$68.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$120.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$35.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$120.8M
Earnings Power Value
$1.32
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$12.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$10.69
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $35.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.94
Base20.0%$35.26
Bull20.0%$35.26

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017128 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001136 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009139 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017128 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001136 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009139 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017128 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001136 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009139 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017128 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001136 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009139 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-046470 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017128 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001136 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009139 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-046470 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017128 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009139 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)