MeritValue

Minerva Neurosciences, Inc.

NERVdata completeness 63%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. earns about -626% on equity, but has diluted owners by 58% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$02$03$04—
Net income−$49.9M5−$32.1M6−$30M7$1.44M8−$293.4M8
Operating cash flow−$24.6M9−$24.6M10−$14.8M11−$19.6M12−$13.5M12
Capital expenditure—$16,32613———
Free cash flow (derived)—−$24.7M10———
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$60.8M14$36.1M15$40.9M16$21.4M17$82.3M17
Diluted shares5.3M5.3M6.5M7.6M8.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$166.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$346.69
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$166.3 of net worth that earned you −$346.69 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-626% avg · 5y
FY21 -626%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -626% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+58% shares · 5y

Share count is up 58% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-007853 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006577 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018392 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006577 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018392 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-101117 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006577 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018392 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-101117 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018392 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006577 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018392 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-101117 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)