MeritValue

NEWMONT Corp /DE/

NEMdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NEWMONT Corp /DE/ earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 38% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.91 and $45.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.2B1$11.9B2$11.8B3$18.7B3$22.7B3
Net income$1.17B4−$429M5−$2.49B6$3.35B6$7.09B6
Operating cash flow$4.28B7$3.22B8$2.76B9$6.36B9$10.3B9
Capital expenditure$1.65B10$2.13B11$2.67B12$3.4B12$3.04B12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.63B7$1.09B8$97M9$2.96B9$7.3B9
Total debt$11.4B13$11.1B14$17.7B15$17B16$10.2B16
Cash & equivalents$4.99B17$2.88B18$3B19$3.62B19$7.65B19
Diluted shares801.0M795.0M841.0M1.15B1.11B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$305.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$63.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$65.88
Debt you’d be carrying
$92.33

10 shares is a claim on $305.66 of net worth that earned you $63.94 and generated $65.88 of cash last year, against $92.33 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 -0%FY23 -4%FY24 7%FY25 19%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+38% shares · 5y

Share count is up 38% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.91 and $45.67 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$45.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.1%
  • fcfBase$2.96B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$43.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.1%
  • fcfBase$2.96B
Earnings Power Value
$10.91
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.17B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$66.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $43.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$35.85
Base4.1%$43.27
Bull9.1%$53.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001164727-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001164727-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001164727-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001164727-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001164727-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001164727-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001164727-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001164727-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001164727-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001164727-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001164727-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001164727-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001164727-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001164727-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001164727-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001164727-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001164727-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001164727-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001164727-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)