MeritValue

Newegg Commerce, Inc.

NEGGdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Newegg Commerce, Inc. earns about -114% on invested capital, and has bought back 95% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.38B1$1.72B2$1.5B3$1.24B3$1.44B3
Net income$36.3M4−$57.4M5−$59M6−$43.3M6−$4.88M6
Operating cash flow−$53.3M7$20.5M8−$3.84M9−$821,0009−$27M9
Capital expenditure$13.8M10$9.19M11$30.3M12$3.62M12$2.69M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$67.1M7$11.3M8−$34.1M9−$4.44M9−$29.7M9
Total debt$4.27M13$3.35M14$2.76M15——
Cash & equivalents$100M16$122.6M17$102.5M18$96.3M18$107.8M18
Diluted shares432,25018,65318,92819,28520,114

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$79,898.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2,426.67
Free cash flow it threw off
−$14,747.94
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $79,898.58 of net worth that earned you −$2,426.67 and generated −$14,747.94 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-114% avg · 5y
FY21 36%FY22 -94%FY23 -158%FY24 -351%FY25 -3%

It earned an average -114% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−95% shares · 5y

Share count is down 95% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 35% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-035840 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048633 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-035840 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048633 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-035840 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048633 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-035840 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048633 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-033334 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-035840 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036055 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-033334 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-036055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048633 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)