MeritValue

NEXTERA ENERGY INC

NEEdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

NEXTERA ENERGY INC earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $34.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$18.8B1$23B2$24.8B3$23.5B3$25.8B3
Net income$3.57B4$4.15B5$7.31B6$6.95B6$6.84B6
Operating cash flow$7.55B7$8.26B8$11.3B9$13.3B9$12.5B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$54.1B10$63.6B11$73B12$82.1B13$95B13
Cash & equivalents$639M14$1.6B15$2.69B16$1.49B17$2.81B17
Diluted shares1.97B1.98B2.03B2.06B2.07B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$263.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.01
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$458.86

10 shares is a claim on $263.73 of net worth that earned you $33.01 last year, against $458.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 3%FY23 5%FY24 4%FY25 3%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 76% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$34.21
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.84B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$44.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000753308-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000753308-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000753308-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000753308-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000753308-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000753308-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000753308-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000753308-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000753308-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000753308-23-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000753308-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000753308-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000753308-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000753308-23-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000753308-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000753308-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000753308-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)