NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc./MD/

NECBdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc./MD/ earns about 29% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $33.69 and $211.15 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$48.4M1$72M2$132.5M3$160M4$154.1M4
Net income$11.9M5$24.8M6$46.3M7$47.1M8$44.4M8
Operating cash flow$21.6M9$27.5M10$42.8M11$48.7M12$52.6M12
Capital expenditure$6.45M13$3.3M14$626,00015$517,00016$1.75M16
Free cash flow (derived)$15.1M9$24.2M10$42.2M11$48.2M12$50.8M12
Total debt$21M17$64M18$70M19
Cash & equivalents$152.3M20$95.3M21$68.7M22$78.3M23$81.2M23
Diluted shares15.9M15.7M13.9M13.4M13.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$257.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$32.52
Free cash flow it threw off
$37.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$51.25

10 shares is a claim on $257.49 of net worth that earned you $32.52 and generated $37.22 of cash last year, against $51.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
29% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 16%FY23 26%FY24 50%FY25 34%

It earned about 29% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 233% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $33.69 and $211.15 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$211.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$48.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$115.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$48.2M
Earnings Power Value
$33.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$44.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$43.39
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $115.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$51.2
Base20.0%$115.8
Bull20.0%$115.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005059 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004281 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002975 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027566 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005059 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004281 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002975 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027566 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005059 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004281 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002975 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027566 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005059 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004281 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002975 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027566 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004281 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002975 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027566 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005059 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004281 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002975 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027566 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)