MeritValue

Noble Corp plc

NEdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Noble Corp plc earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 36% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.02 and $33.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$964.3M1$1.41B2$2.59B3$3.06B3$3.29B3
Net income−$3.98B4$168.9M5$481.9M6$448.4M6$216.7M6
Operating cash flow$273.2M7$281M8$574.3M9$655.5M9$951.7M9
Capital expenditure$148.9M10$174.3M11$409.6M12$575.3M12$519.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$124.3M7$106.7M8$164.8M9$80.2M9$432.2M9
Total debt—$672.8M13$586.2M14$1.98B15$1.98B15
Cash & equivalents$365M16$476.2M17$360.8M18$247.3M19$471.4M19
Diluted shares250.8M97.6M145.2M151.6M160.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$283.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.53
Free cash flow it threw off
$26.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$123.33

10 shares is a claim on $283.94 of net worth that earned you $13.53 and generated $26.98 of cash last year, against $123.33 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY20 —FY22 5%FY23 13%FY24 7%FY25 4%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−36% shares · 5y

Share count is down 36% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 194% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.02 and $33.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$33.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.1%
  • fcfBase$164.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.1%
  • fcfBase$164.8M
Earnings Power Value
$14.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$216.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$29.37
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.31
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.3
Base15.1%$18.31
Bull20.0%$24.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007260 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006184 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001895262-26-000076 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007260 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006184 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001895262-26-000076 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007260 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006184 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001895262-26-000076 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007260 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006184 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001895262-26-000076 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006622 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006184 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001895262-26-000076 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006622 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006622 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006184 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001895262-26-000076 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)