MeritValue

NOODLES & Co

NDLSdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NOODLES & Co earns about -16% on invested capital, and has bought back 87% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2023FY 2024FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$475.2M1$509.5M2$503.4M3$493.3M3$495.1M3
Net income$3.67M4−$3.31M5−$9.86M6−$36.2M6−$42.6M6
Operating cash flow$36.2M7$9.56M8$27.5M9$7.56M9$7.28M9
Capital expenditure$18.8M10$33.9M11$52M12$28.8M12$12.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$17.4M7−$24.3M8−$24.5M9−$21.2M9−$5.11M9
Total debt$21M13$46.1M14$80.2M15$100.7M16$108.8M16
Cash & equivalents$2.26M17$1.52M18$3.01M19$1.15M20$1.27M20
Diluted shares46.1M45.9M5.7M5.7M5.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$78.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$73.55
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.83
Debt you’d be carrying
$187.96

10 shares is a claim on −$78.28 of net worth that earned you −$73.55 and generated −$8.83 of cash last year, against $187.96 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-16% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY23 -1%FY24 -4%FY24 -30%FY25 -54%

It earned an average -16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−87% shares · 5y

Share count is down 87% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 419% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001275158-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0001275158-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001275158-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001275158-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0001275158-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001275158-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001275158-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0001275158-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001275158-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001275158-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0001275158-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001275158-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001275158-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0001275158-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001275158-25-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001275158-26-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001275158-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-03 · accession 0001275158-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-02 · accession 0001275158-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001275158-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)