MeritValue

NASDAQ, INC.

NDAQdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NASDAQ, INC. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.15 and $119.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.89B1$6.23B2$6.06B3$7.4B3$8.26B3
Net income$1.19B4$1.13B5$1.06B6$1.12B6$1.79B6
Operating cash flow$1.08B7$1.71B8$1.7B9$1.94B9$2.26B9
Capital expenditure$163M10$152M11$158M12$207M12$266M12
Free cash flow (derived)$920M7$1.55B8$1.54B9$1.73B9$1.99B9
Total debt$11.7B13$10.8B14$20.9B15$19B16$18B16
Cash & equivalents$393M17$502M18$453M19$592M19$604M19
Diluted shares505.1M497.9M508.4M579.2M578.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$211.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.38
Debt you’d be carrying
$311.24

10 shares is a claim on $211.32 of net worth that earned you $30.9 and generated $34.38 of cash last year, against $311.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 7%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 6%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+15% shares · 5y

Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 54% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.15 and $119.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$119.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.6%
  • fcfBase$1.73B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$58.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.6%
  • fcfBase$1.73B
Earnings Power Value
$20.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.13B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $58.95
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.69
Base17.6%$58.95
Bull20.0%$67.52

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001120193-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001120193-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007703 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001120193-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001120193-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007703 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001120193-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001120193-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007703 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001120193-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001120193-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007703 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001120193-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001120193-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001120193-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007703 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001120193-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001120193-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007703 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)