MeritValue

NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.

NCSMdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $72.46 and $75.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$118.5M1$155.6M2$142.5M3$162.6M4$183.6M4
Net income−$4.73M5−$1.1M6−$3.15M7$6.59M8$23.7M8
Operating cash flow$11.6M9−$1.42M10$4.77M11$12.7M12$22.2M12
Capital expenditure$495,00013$1.04M14$1.88M15$1.31M16$1.2M16
Free cash flow (derived)$11.1M9−$2.46M10$2.89M11$11.4M12$21M12
Total debt$7.82M17————
Cash & equivalents$22.2M18$16.2M19$16.7M20$25.9M21$36.7M21
Diluted shares2.4M2.4M2.5M2.6M2.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$459.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$86.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$76.38
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $459.72 of net worth that earned you $86.48 and generated $76.38 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 -1%FY23 -4%FY24 11%FY25 19%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+15% shares · 5y

Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $72.46 and $75.38 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$72.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.0%
  • fcfBase$11.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$75.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.0%
  • fcfBase$11.4M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$94.59
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $75.38
The three cases
Bear0.0%$72.77
Base1.0%$75.38
Bull6.0%$90.28

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692427-23-000008 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692427-24-000008 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006851 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007065 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692427-23-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692427-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006851 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007065 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692427-23-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692427-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006851 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007065 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692427-23-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692427-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006851 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007065 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692427-22-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692427-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692427-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006851 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007065 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)