nCino, Inc.
NCNOdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
nCino, Inc. earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.12 and $9.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $273.9M1 | $408.3M2 | $476.5M3 | $540.7M3 | $594.8M3 |
| Net income | −$49.4M4 | −$102.7M5 | −$42.3M6 | −$37.9M6 | $5.18M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$19.2M7 | −$15.4M8 | $57.3M9 | $55.2M9 | $90.1M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $5.46M10 | $18.3M11 | $3.52M12 | $1.82M12 | $7.5M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$24.7M7 | −$33.7M8 | $53.8M9 | $53.4M9 | $82.6M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $88M13 | $82M14 | $112.1M15 | $120.9M15 | $88.4M15 |
| Diluted shares | 96.7M | 110.6M | 112.7M | 115.2M | 114.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $92.34 of net worth that earned you $0.45 and generated $7.22 of cash last year.
It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.12 and $9.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$53.8M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$53.8M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $7.49 |
| Base | 5.0% | $9.12 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $11.06 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001902733-24-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001902733-25-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001902733-26-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001902733-24-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001902733-25-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001902733-26-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001902733-24-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001902733-25-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001902733-26-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001902733-24-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001902733-25-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001902733-26-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001902733-24-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001902733-25-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001902733-26-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)