MeritValue

National CineMedia, Inc.

NCMIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

National CineMedia, Inc. earns about 33% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.77 and $0.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$114.6M1$249.2M2$165.2M3$240.8M3$243.2M3
Net income−$48.7M4−$28.7M5$705.2M6−$22.3M6−$10.6M6
Operating cash flow−$95.2M7−$47.3M8−$6.7M9$60.3M9$8.4M9
Capital expenditure$5.7M10$2.9M11$3.3M12$5.8M12$5.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$100.9M7−$50.2M8−$10M9$54.5M9$2.8M9
Total debt$2.2B13$3.36B14$20M15$10M16$12M16
Cash & equivalents$101.2M17$61.7M18$34.6M19$75.1M20$34.6M20
Diluted shares79.9M8.2M48.6M95.9M94.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$39.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.13
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.3
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.27

10 shares is a claim on $39.86 of net worth that earned you −$1.13 and generated $0.3 of cash last year, against $1.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 0%FY23 173%FY24 -5%FY26 -2%

It earned about 33% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 99% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.77 and $0.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.77
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.66
Base5.0%$0.77
Bull10.0%$0.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0001377630-23-000061 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0001377630-24-000042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-076788 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0001377630-23-000061 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0001377630-24-000042 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-076788 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0001377630-23-000061 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0001377630-24-000042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-076788 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0001377630-23-000061 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0001377630-24-000042 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-076788 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0001377630-23-000061 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0001377630-24-000042 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0000950170-25-034706 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-26 · accession 0001193125-26-076788 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0001377630-23-000061 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0001377630-24-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0000950170-25-034706 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-26 · accession 0001193125-26-076788 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)