MeritValue

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

NCLHdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. earns about -40% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 31% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$648M1$4.84B2$8.55B3$9.48B3$9.83B3
Net income−$4.51B4−$2.27B5$166.2M6$910.3M6$423.2M6
Operating cash flow−$2.47B7$210M8$2.01B9$2.05B9$2.09B9
Capital expenditure$752.8M10$1.78B11$2.75B12$1.21B12$3.26B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$3.22B7−$1.57B8−$744.6M9$838.9M9−$1.17B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.51B13$947M14$402.4M15$190.8M16$209.9M16
Diluted shares365.4M419.8M427.4M515.0M477.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$46.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.86
Free cash flow it threw off
−$24.49
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $46.26 of net worth that earned you $8.86 and generated −$24.49 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-40% avg · 5y
FY21 -205%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 63%FY25 21%

It earned an average -40% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+31% shares · 5y

Share count is up 31% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$3.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$166.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.79
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001935 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001743 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022067 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001935 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001743 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022067 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001935 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001743 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001935 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001743 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022067 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002361 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001935 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001743 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022067 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)