Northann Corp.

NCLdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Northann Corp. earns about -38% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 29% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024
Revenue	$21M¹	$14M²	$15.3M²
Net income	$929,059³	−$7.13M⁴	−$4.38M⁴
Operating cash flow	−$3.43M⁵	−$4.68M⁶	−$1.23M⁶
Capital expenditure	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—
Total debt	$5.49M⁷	$5.69M⁸	$4.7M⁸
Cash & equivalents	$254,935⁹	$1.11M⁹	$245,164⁹
Diluted shares	20.4M	20.3M	26.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$0.99

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$1.67

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

$1.79

10 shares is a claim on $0.99 of net worth that earned you −$1.67 last year, against $1.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

-38% avg · 3y

FY22 17%FY23 -83%FY24 -49%

It earned an average -38% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+29% shares · 3y

Share count is up 29% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 14% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575872-24-000353 (Revenues)
10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001575872-25-000444 (Revenues)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575872-24-000353 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001575872-25-000444 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575872-24-000353 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001575872-25-000444 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575872-24-000353 (ShortTermBorrowings)
10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001575872-25-000444 (ShortTermBorrowings)
10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001575872-25-000444 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)