MeritValue

Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Ltd

NCIdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Ltd earns about 6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$22.3M1$30.3M2$17.6M3
Net income$565,2024$1.04M5$42,6156
Operating cash flow−$6.3M7$55,1318$2.75M9
Capital expenditure$163,34210$533,48711$514,94412
Free cash flow (derived)−$6.47M7−$478,3568$2.23M9
Total debt$7.87M13$6.98M14$1.22M15
Cash & equivalents$748,86516$1.18M17$299,73018
Diluted shares3.6M3.9M4.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$17.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.1
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.49
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.01

10 shares is a claim on $17.89 of net worth that earned you $0.1 and generated $5.49 of cash last year, against $3.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 3y
FY23 8%FY24 8%FY25 1%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 3y

Share count is up 13% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 84% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$1.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$565,202
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-042594 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043533 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050005 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-042594 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043533 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-042594 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043533 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-042594 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043533 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-042594 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043533 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050005 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-042594 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043533 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)