MeritValue

New Century Logistics (BVI) Ltd

NCEWdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

New Century Logistics (BVI) Ltd earns about -27% on invested capital, and has bought back 86% of its shares over 4 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$75.2M1$36.1M2$52.2M2$44.1M2
Net income$6.98M3$454,4154$220,6434−$10.7M4
Operating cash flow$6.8M5−$2.49M6$1.43M6−$3.42M6
Capital expenditure$462,3357——$54,4878
Free cash flow (derived)$6.34M5——−$3.47M6
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents—$291,3169$659,32010$645,91210
Diluted shares20.0M2.5M2.5M2.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$18.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$37.05
Free cash flow it threw off
−$12.05
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $18.36 of net worth that earned you −$37.05 and generated −$12.05 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-27% avg · 4y
FY22 61%FY23 8%FY24 4%FY25 -183%

It earned an average -27% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−86% shares · 4y

Share count is down 86% over 4 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$1.21
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$337,529
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001493152-25-003986 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001493152-26-027632 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001493152-25-003986 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001493152-26-027632 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001493152-25-003986 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001493152-26-027632 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001493152-25-003986 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F/A · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001493152-26-027632 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001493152-25-003986 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 20-F/A · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001493152-26-027632 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)