MeritValue

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.

NCDLdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. earns about 8% on equity, and has bought back 100% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $13.52 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$27.3M1$17.3M2$75.9M3$116.3M3$65.6M3
Operating cash flow−$389.1M4−$427.8M5−$369.5M6−$297.2M6$194.2M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—$705.4M7$951.9M8$1.11B9$1.11B9
Cash & equivalents$35.2M10$39.3M10$67.4M11$43.3M11$62.5M12
Diluted shares12.85B23.3M33.4M54.1M50.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$174.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.05
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$221.56

10 shares is a claim on $174.04 of net worth that earned you $13.05 last year, against $221.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 3%FY23 10%FY24 12%FY25 7%

It earned an average 8% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−100% shares · 5y

Share count is down 100% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 58% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$13.52
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$65.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008382 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001737924-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008382 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001737924-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007039 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008382 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001737924-26-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008382 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001737924-26-000014 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)