MeritValue

NACCO INDUSTRIES INC

NCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NACCO INDUSTRIES INC earns about 7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $46.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$191.8M1$241.7M2$214.8M3$237.7M4$277.2M4
Net income$48.1M5$74.2M6−$39.6M7$33.7M8$17.6M8
Operating cash flow$74.9M9$67.7M10$54.5M11$22.3M12$50.9M12
Capital expenditure$39.2M13$42.5M14$45.4M15$54.7M16$48.6M16
Free cash flow (derived)$35.6M9$25.2M10$9.08M11−$32.4M12$2.28M12
Total debt$20.4M17$18.9M18$35.8M19$99.4M20$100.8M20
Cash & equivalents$86M21$110.7M22$85.1M23$72.8M24$49.7M24
Diluted shares7.2M7.4M7.5M7.4M7.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$573.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.05
Debt you’d be carrying
$134.79

10 shares is a claim on $573.78 of net worth that earned you $23.49 and generated $3.05 of cash last year, against $134.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 23%FY23 -15%FY24 8%FY25 3%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 394% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.28M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.28M
Earnings Power Value
$46.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$33.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$55.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000789933-23-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000789933-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789933-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000789933-26-000070 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000789933-23-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000789933-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789933-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000789933-26-000070 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000789933-23-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000789933-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789933-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000789933-26-000070 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000789933-23-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000789933-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789933-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000789933-26-000070 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000789933-23-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000789933-24-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789933-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000789933-26-000070 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000789933-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000789933-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789933-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000789933-26-000070 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)