MeritValue

NBT BANCORP INC

NBTBdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NBT BANCORP INC earns about 61% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $30.96 and $75.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$151M1$150.7M2$144.7M3$165.7M3$183M3
Net income$154.9M4$152M5$118.8M6$140.6M6$169.2M6
Operating cash flow$159.2M7$183.2M8$157.5M9$188.6M9$235.2M9
Capital expenditure$7.74M10$7.01M11$9.25M12$11.7M12$16.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$151.4M7$176.2M8$148.2M9$176.8M9$218.9M9
Total debt$97.8M13$585M14$386.7M15$162.9M16$148.1M16
Cash & equivalents$1.27B17$197.4M18$205.2M18$284.1M18$487.1M18
Diluted shares43.7M43.2M44.8M47.4M50.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$372.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.26
Free cash flow it threw off
$43.03
Debt you’d be carrying
$29.1

10 shares is a claim on $372.72 of net worth that earned you $33.26 and generated $43.03 of cash last year, against $29.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
61% avg · 5y
FY21 214%FY22 11%FY23 14%FY24 32%FY25 36%

It earned about 61% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 51% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $30.96 and $75.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$75.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.3%
  • fcfBase$176.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$69.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.3%
  • fcfBase$176.8M
Earnings Power Value
$30.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$152M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$52.85
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $69.14
The three cases
Bear0.0%$56.32
Base5.3%$69.14
Bull10.3%$83.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010464 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006528 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007179 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010464 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006528 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007179 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010464 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006528 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007179 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010464 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006528 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007179 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-009417 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010464 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006528 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007179 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-006528 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-007179 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)