MeritValue

NABORS INDUSTRIES LTD

NBRdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NABORS INDUSTRIES LTD earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 90% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.02B1$2.65B2$3.01B3$2.93B3$3.18B3
Net income−$569.3M4−$350.3M5−$11.8M6−$176.1M6$286.6M6
Operating cash flow$428.8M7$501.1M8$637.9M9$581.4M9$693.3M9
Capital expenditure$234M10$373.4M11$540.9M12$567.9M12$715.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$194.7M7$127.6M8$97M9$13.5M9−$22.7M9
Total debt$6.53B13$5.08B14$3.14B15$2.51B16$2.49B16
Cash & equivalents$991.5M17$451M18$1.06B18$389.7M18$940.7M18
Diluted shares7.6M8.9M9.2M9.2M14.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$409.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$198.82
Free cash flow it threw off
−$15.73
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,730.49

10 shares is a claim on $409.77 of net worth that earned you $198.82 and generated −$15.73 of cash last year, against $1,730.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 -1%FY23 7%FY24 -1%FY25 17%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+90% shares · 5y

Share count is up 90% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 62% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$13.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$13.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$126.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-000973 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000926 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-014997 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-000973 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000926 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-014997 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-000973 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000926 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-014997 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-000973 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000926 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-014997 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001064 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-000973 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000926 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-014997 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000926 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-014997 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)