MeritValue

Nebius Group N.V.

NBISdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Nebius Group N.V. earns about -8% on invested capital, and has bought back 32% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$752.6M1$1.31B2$9.8M3$91.5M3$529.8M3
Net income−$197.2M4$745.6M5$241.3M6−$641.4M6$82.5M6
Operating cash flow$125.1M7$697M8$829.8M9$245.6M9$384.8M9
Capital expenditure$600.6M10$14.6M11$82.9M12$807.5M12$4.07B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$475.5M7$682.4M8$746.9M9−$561.9M9−$3.68B9
Total debt—$1.46B13$2.14B14$6.1M15$8.23B16
Cash & equivalents$1.13B17$288.5M18$110.7M19$2.43B19$3.68B19
Diluted shares362.4M368.0M370.8M281.0M247.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$185.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.33
Free cash flow it threw off
−$148.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$332.32

10 shares is a claim on $185.48 of net worth that earned you $3.33 and generated −$148.63 of cash last year, against $332.32 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-8% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 -2%FY23 -3%FY24 -34%FY25 0%

It earned an average -8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−32% shares · 5y

Share count is down 32% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 465% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$3.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$82.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.74
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-005654 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006319 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-052948 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-005654 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005991 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-052948 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-005654 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005991 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-052948 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-005654 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005991 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-052948 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006319 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-005891 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-052948 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-052948 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-006319 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005991 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-052948 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)