MeritValue

National Bank Holdings Corp

NBHCdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

National Bank Holdings Corp earns about 83% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 23% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $29.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$35.8M1$37.7M2$46.9M3$46.2M3$47.2M3
Net income$93.6M4$71.3M5$142M6$118.8M6$109.6M6
Operating cash flow$179.5M7$214.6M8$166.9M9$155.3M9$162.4M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$39.5M10$53.9M11$54.2M12$54.5M13$54.5M13
Cash & equivalents$845.7M14$195.5M15$190.8M16$127.8M17$417.1M17
Diluted shares31.1M32.7M38.1M38.4M38.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$363.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$28.77
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.32

10 shares is a claim on $363.63 of net worth that earned you $28.77 last year, against $14.32 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
83% avg · 5y
FY21 309%FY22 9%FY23 23%FY24 33%FY25 39%

It earned an average 83% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+23% shares · 5y

Share count is up 23% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 38% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$29.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$109.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$48.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001838 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001502 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019119 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001838 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001502 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019119 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001838 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001502 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019119 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002370 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001838 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001502 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019119 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002370 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001838 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001502 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019119 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)